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How much fat can I realistically expect to lose in a given month by doing what you suggest today?
One pound of fat is 3500 calories. So if you were to stay in a caloric deficit of 500 calories per day you would lose 1 pound per week, 4 pounds per month.
If you wanted to be a bit more aggressive, stay in a deficit of 1000 per day and lose 8 pounds of fat per month.